Labour and Conservative Manifesto brief analysis

So, the three main parties have released their manifestoes. These documents are... pretty long, and the bulk of it is in politispeak - not the easiest thing to dissect. Thankfully, Newsnight is providing analyses for us, which I will provide links to and summarise. Don't forget, most iPlayer content, Newsnight included, only stays up for 7 days, so its worth watching sooner rather than later.

I'll go over the Lib Dem manifesto tomorrow - I'd like to compare notes with Newsnight first, as it were.

Labour - Manifesto launched on Monday 12 April.

Newsnight

Labour's manifesto handily includes a set of 50 main policy points on pages 74 to 78 - it's well worth reading if you can spare 5-10 minutes. However, there isn't much that is new to it, and that is not much of a surprise - why would the Labour party seek to completely reform the machinery of Government that it has had 13 years to build up? As a result, there isn't as much to talk about. I'll go over some of the key points though.

• Job or training place for young people who are out of work for 6 months - benefits cut at 10 months if they refuse; anyone unemployed for more than 2 years guaranteed work, but no option of life on benefits - this should cut down on benefit fraud if it works.
• National minimum wage staying at least in-line with average earnings - not the rate of inflation - and £40-a-week Better Off in Work guarantee - not sure how that would work yet, but as a complaint I've heard a few times before is that its better to be on the dole than in a low-paying job, then that's a good thing if it works.
• No stamp duty for first time buyers on housing below £250k for two years, paid for by an increase on £1 million houses.
• Choice of good schools in every area, and where applicable, powers for new 'school leadership teams'.
• Improvements to waiting times, particularly cancer testing, or offer of going private - that could mire underperforming trusts in debt if not carefully managed.
• 'Father's Month' of flexible paid leave for new fathers - a step towards new parent gender equality but still a way off.
• Small moves towards electoral reform.

There's no real surprises here, frankly.

One point which Newsnight worked on a bit too much I thought - even before I saw the Tory manifesto analysis - was the lack of a pledge to keep VAT the same. Ed Milliband stated in his interview that it had never been mentioned in any other New Labour manifesto, but that doesn't really settle one's thoughts on the topic due to the economic situation. Here's my take on it: Putting up VAT would be a hugely unpopular move - both inside and outside Parliament. True, by not mentioning it they can simply save face if they do have to raise it - we made no commitments on VAT and such - but it will still be very unpopular, and they know that just as well as we do. But it gives the party some leeway in dealing with the public finances - if the economy underperforms, they have a means by which they can help bolster the taxes and meet their election pledge to half the deficit by 2014. I believe that some economists already consider Labour's growth estimates to be optimistic, but they would have to be more than simply optimistic to warrant the public backlash that a VAT hike would bring. And hey, growth in Q4 2009 (I think it was that period, may be wrong) was actually higher than their prediction. Not saying that growth will be higher than their predictions all the way, but their predictions may not be quite so optimistic as feared.

Conservative - Manifesto launched on Tuesday 13 April

Newsnight

I apologise for this section being so much longer than the Labour section - there is simply more to talk about as the Tories are not already in power. It should be an interesting read though, I hope.

The Tory manifesto shows two key things about the party that make them different from Labour. Firstly, the ideological process is entirely different. Left-wing politics tend to be about the state having more control to create equality for all, whereas right-wing politics - ignoring the far-right wing - are generally about reducing the involvement of the state and allowing local communities to do their own thing. That is exactly what their manifesto is about - letting people set up their own schools, referendums on increases to council tax, being able to sack your MP... All of this sounds good, but would it work well in reality?

Of the three points I mentioned, I'll take the last one first as it is the one that makes most sense. The ability to remove your MP - presumably to force a by-election where that same person may have the option of running for the seat again if their party decides to put the same person up as a candidate - is good. It is something that people want, especially in the wake of the expenses scandal. However, when you look at this as a part of electoral reform as a whole, the picture changes. See, the Tories are very much against any concept of electoral reform - proportional representation and the like. The ability to remove an MP and force a by-election, argubly, goes against their own ideals. While it is a good idea, to me it reads simply as a populist measure to gain votes. As does much of their manifesto. Referendums on council tax increases, for instance. That sounds good, but let's face it - many people will vote no to any tax increase, no matter how justified. The council won't be able to keep up with providing services, so they'll have to make cuts.

The issue of schools is an interesting one. The model they have adopted is a Swedish one, whereby people will be encouraged to set up - with funding - their own schools. It certainly sounds good, and I have no doubt that it could produce some good schools. However, a member of the public in Newsnight raised a good issue with this; devolution of powers over education to local populaces would have a high chance of causing an increase in regional inequality. What does that mean? In areas where there are enough people who have enough interest in the topic to get actively engaged, and have the means where they can afford to do so, good schools could come out of it. But not every area of the country is like that. There will be areas where people cannot afford to take time off of work, or don't have much interest in taking part, and will simply accept that their local school is good enough. You just need to watch the ask-the-public parts of these Newsnight features to see how uninterested many people are in politics, and it isn't a stretch to believe that many of these people, when presented with the chance to create a better quality of education if they engage with the topic, just won't bother.

Another point worth mentioning in brief is the idea of electing police officials. This is another populist measure that, in practice, most likely would not be good. There is an awful lot in an institution like the police that we simply do not understand. Jeremy Paxman raised this point well in Newsnight - if the common crime-related concerns are small crimes such as vandalism and ASBOs, what would happen if you voted in an official who focused too much on these points, either through sharing the popular view or simply wanting the vote? What would happen to other crimes, such as murder, terrorism? Do we really know the police better than people who have worked up through the ranks? I'm all for accountability, but sometimes a line has to be drawn. Stepping beyond that line for me would be stepping into ignorance. For others, stepping beyond that line is something that they have based their entire career around.

My second point, and a key one; the Conservative manifesto has a lot of holes in it. It is a concept of a new philosophy of Government, and one that - in my view - does not stand up to scrutiny. Beyond that, it does not set out how they would do all this; it does not talk about money. For an election situated in a time where finances are key, it is lacking on policies. I think this is a good way of summing up the Conservative party as a whole - the surface looks good, but under that, questions arise. Cameron likes to say that the Tory party has modernised, but they haven't; they still vote against gay rights, they still value the idea of 'marriage' in a time where people don't necessarily want to be married. They even want to bring back fox hunting! But they don't want us to look at that, they want us to look at David Cameron, the charismatic ex-PR leader of the party.

Want to know what's on the third page of the manifesto? A picture of Cameron, in black and white (with green divider lines above and below - not a colour vs black and white printing issue), writing at a desk. Cult of personality, anyone? This isn't American politics - we don't vote for a Prime Minister and Chancellor duo. We vote for a whole party. Has the whole party modernised? I don't think so.

2010 General Election

A general election has been called for May 6th. Parliament will dissolve this coming Monday, and the election battle will commence. This promises to be a fiercely contested election, as we come to the end of an era of 13 years of Labour, brought about by the financial crisis. Do you know the specifics where each of the parties stands on key issues? I sure don't, mainly because the politicians never really tell us. I can't make them tell us what we want to hear instead of what they think we want to hear, but I can try and do my bit to try and make sure the points are as clear as possible. Hopefully this will help those who have not delved much into politics before, either through a lack of interest or first-time voters.

Remember, it is not just the Labour party and the Conservative party - there are other parties besides. Do you know what the other parties are, what they stand for? Do you know what the Labour and Conservative parties stand for? If not, how do you know that your vote will go where you want it without knowing all the facts? This is going to be an important election, make sure you know where your vote is going is where you want it to go.

I've set up a page - accessible through the link in the navigation bar above - for information on the key points on various issues. This will primarily be sourcing information from other sites in an unbiased fashion, a quick overview of the situation. In my news posts, I will discuss things from my own political bias - but not in a fashion that is blind to what is around me - and I will look at details in more depth. After the break, I'll briefly outline the party political make-up of the UK - read on for my view.